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Speculative Evidence |
| Description: | ||
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| The argument draws a conclusion from an assertion about what the evidence would show if one were actually to look at it; however, the argument appeals to evidence that has not actually been collected or does not actually exist. | ||
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| Examples: | ||
| "The United States is getting further and further behind in science education. You probably couldn't find more than a handful of High School students who could explain Newton's three laws of motion to you." | ||
| "Men are just as emotionally sensitive as women. I'm sure that, if you did a study, you wouldn't find any statistical difference between men and women." | ||
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| Discussion: | ||
| Of course there is nothing wrong with speculating on the
anticipated results of an experiment or study. Indeed, speculation of this
kind is precisely how experiments are conceived of and designed. In a
careful experiment it is even necessary to state the "experimental
hypothesis," which is, in effect, what we speculate will be the outcome of
the experiment.
It is perhaps because good experimental design requires us to speculate, that mere speculation can sometimes pass as genuine evidence. The fallacy of Speculative Evidence mimics good reasoning by correctly performing the first step in the design of an experiment, namely the stating of the anticipated results. However, the fallacy errs by then sneaking straight to the conclusion without actually performing the experiment, i.e. treating the anticipated results as if those results were already confirmed and could be relied upon. This seems like an obvious enough fallacy, so it is surprising how many people confess to being guilty of it. I first spotted the fallacy by observing my own tendency to treat my own speculations as if others should be convinced by them. |
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| Classification: An inductive Fallacy of Circularity. | ||
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| Source: I named this fallacy. I don't believe I've ever seen it in print, but I observe it frequently in conversation. I have even (I regret to say) used it myself from time to time. | ||
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